MLB betting line



MLB betting line




October 23rd MLB news ... In order to hit a home run during the baseball season, the baseball bettor needs to stay a top all of the latest trends, MLB betting line and statistics. This site will provide all of that information and much more.
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In order to hit a home run during the baseball season, the baseball bettor needs to stay a top all of the latest trends, MLB betting line and statistics. This site will provide all of that information and much more.

MLB News

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
2010-10-21

NLCS Game 4, San Francisco leads series 2-1

Wednesday, 7:55 p.m. EDT

Sportsbook.com Betting Odds: San Francisco -108, Philadelphia -102, Total: 7.5

San Francisco looks to take a commanding three-games-to-one lead when it sends Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00) to the mound in Game 4. Philadelphia counters with Joe Blanton (9-6, 4.82 ERA).

Bumgarner picked up the win in the series-clinching Game 4 of the NLDS against Atlanta, throwing six innings and allowing two runs on six hits while striking out five. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA over his past three starts. Bumgarner struggled a bit at home this year, going 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA. By contrast, his ERA on the road during the regular season was 1.91. Wednesday marks his first career start against Philadelphia.

Blanton makes his first playoff start of the year in Game 4. The right-hander hasn’t pitched since September 29 where he went seven innings, surrendering only an unearned run and three hits in a 7-1 win over the Nationals. The Phillies have won Blanton’s past seven starts and 10 of his past 11 outings. He struggled a bit on the road this year, going 4-4 with a 5.31 ERA. Blanton hasn’t fared very well against the Giants in his career either, taking a 2-3 mark and a 4.73 ERA into Wednesday’s matchup. However, his lone 2010 start against San Francisco was encouraging. Blanton picked up the win after scattering eight hits and two runs over 6.1 innings.

According to this key baseball betting trend, those betting on the Giants appear to be on the right side:

Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (125-78 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.6%, +49.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Now that you have the key numbers for tonight’s MLB Playoff games, head over to Sportsbook.com to place your bets.


MLB Handicapping Study – Divisional Dogs
2010-07-14

I had a conversation last Apuestas Deportivas Online Bingo Online Bingo Rooms Play Bingo online NFL Betting Odds week with a FoxSheets subscriber who claimed to have consistent success in betting baseball by following just a short list of fundamental concepts and strategies. While some of them were FoxSheets info-related in terms of systems and power ratings, etc, one of them was much more straight forward and it involved simply looking for value-laden underdogs in divisional games. Of course this piqued my curiosity, and to scratch that itch, I went back and did a study analyzing the performance of divisional dogs over the last decade.

One of the most fundamental beliefs in anyone who puts more weight in divisional games is that there is a familiarity that decreases the theoretical talent margin between two teams. They face each other so many times each season that they are well-versed in the strengths and weaknesses of each player and thus the opponent as a whole. Realistically, the oddsmaker doesn’t take this into account as much, since they are typically building their lines from a more universal set of power ratings that doesn’t recognize situational factors such as divisional play. Obviously the underlying thought is that this disconnect should lend value to anyone who believes in the power of the rivalry.

So, having theoretically been convinced that there was some merit to this divisional underdog theory, I set out to find out the actual results. I took all of the divisional games played in Major League Baseball between 2000 and this past Sunday (July 11th) and tabulated the wins, losses, and betting units won had a bettor backed every divisional dog in that time frame. The results are below.

<b>Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)</b>

<b>Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>2000: </b>224-293 (43.3%), +24.4 Units

<b>2001: </b>284-376 (43.0%), +8.2 Units

<b>2002: </b>251-417 (37.6%), -57 Units

<b>2003: </b>265-404 (39.6%), -2.5 Units

<b>2004: </b>283-403 (41.3%), +4.9 Units

<b>2005: </b>318-400 (44.3%), +43.9 Units

<b>2006: </b>301-411 (42.3%), +2.1 Units

<b>2007: </b>306-377 (44.8%), +53.4 Units

<b>2008: </b>308-406 (43.1%), +22.1 Units

<b>2009: </b>270-421 (39.1%), -39.6 Units

<b>2010: </b>134-187 (41.7%), +1.4 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

Average Road Underdog Line: -158

Average Return on Investment = 0.9%

As you can see, the divisional road underdog has been generally successful, producing 61.3 units of profit over the last decade-plus, with a R.O.I. of about 0.9%. Now, that isn’t enough to really wow a systems handicapper, but it does suggest that the strategy of backing road divisional dogs will at least keep the average joe in the fight against the oddsmakers. One important thing to note from the season-by-season results is that in only three of the 11 seasons has the road divisional dog netted a loss. So it can be said that the results of 2002 & 2009 in particular skew the numbers of what would be an otherwise more solid theory.

<b>Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)</b>

<b>Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>2000: </b>127-112 (53.1%), +49.5 Units

<b>2001: </b>157-215 (42.2%), -22.4 Units

<b>2002: </b>156-210 (42.6%), -4.2 Units

<b>2003: </b>171-199 (46.2%), +25.6 Units

<b>2004: </b>150-187 (44.5%), +11 Units

<b>2005: </b>133-185 (41.8%), -14.9 Units

<b>2006: </b>162-187 (46.4%), +15.3 Units

<b>2007: </b>152-184 (45.2%), +0.8 Units

<b>2008: </b>147-160 (47.9%), +12.2 Units

<b>2009: </b>143-184 (43.7%), -14.4 Units

<b>2010: </b>74-77 (49.0%), +13.3 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

Average Home Underdog Line: +129

Average Return on Investment = 2.1%

The divisional home underdog has proven over doubly effective than those on the road in terms of R.O.I., producing about 2.1% over the last 11 seasons, with a net profit of 71.8 units. Again, only four seasons netted a loss during that time span, with 2002 & 2009 again being part of the group. It is interesting to see that divisional home dogs up through the all-star break in 2010 have won 49% of their games, the highest winning percentage since 2000, with a R.O.I. of 8.8%.

<b>Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)</b>

<b>HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>-300 or higher: </b>24-66 (26.7%), +5.7 Units

<b>-250 to -299: </b>58-148 (28.2%), -9.6 Units

<b>-220 to -249: </b>143-252 (36.2%), +47.8 Units

<b>-190 to -219: </b>236-410 (36.5%), +25.7 Units

<b>-170 to -189: </b>305-501 (37.8%), +4.4 Units

<b>-150 to -169: </b>529-801 (39.8%), -25.7 Units

<b>-130 to -149: </b>786-973 (44.7%), +29.2 Units

<b>-116 to -129: </b>435-477 (47.7%), +12.5 Units

<b>-106 to -115: </b>428-467 (47.8%), -28.7 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

As you can see, there are some distinct breaks in success rates by divisional road dogs when you consider the line range in which they are playing too. There is a so-called “sweet spot” when the home team is favored in the -190 to -249 range. In these games since 2000, the road divisional dog has only won about 36.4% of its games, but has produced 73.5 units of profit. That equates to a R.O.I. of 7.1%. Now that type of return is something that mutual fund managers would kill for nowadays. If only us bettors had dropped our 401K money into this option rather than on Wall Street!

<b>Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)</b>

<b>HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>

<b>+105 to -104: </b>440-456 (49.1%), -5.2 Units

<b>+106 to +120: </b>456-480 (48.7%), +40.8 Units

<b>+121 to +154: </b>475-585 (44.8%), +54.7 Units

<b>+155 to +199: </b>167-289 (36.6%), -6.2 Units

<b>+200 or higher: </b>34-90 (27.4%), -12.3 Units

<b>TOTAL: </b>1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

The break in line range performance by home divisional dogs is very transparent. Those playing in the +106 to +154 range have been a solid investment over the last decade-plus, going 931-1065 for +95.5 units of profit. Compare that to the home divisional dogs in every other range that have netted -23.7 units of loss. Considering that 1,996 games have produced 4.8% R.O.I. over the 11-year span, bettors have a strategy in front of them that has produced both handsomely and consistently. At an average of 190 games per season, bettors can expect to have an opportunity to take advantage about once a night during the baseball season.

<b>Summary</b>

The results of the divisional dogs study are encouraging as it doesn’t take a whole lot of digging to come up with plays that should produce profits over the long haul, assuming of course that proper money management techniques are held to. Of course, this study was conducted using dime lines as the basis, and bettors paying higher vig than that is just cheating themselves. I would have no problem recommending the divisional dog strategy as a basis for beginning your baseball handicapping each day. When you spice in bullpen analysis, systems, and other key strength indicators, you should have all you need to build a nice bankroll each summer.


MLB: Pitching Matchups have bettors thinking
2009-07-28

In the National League, two games standout Tuesday, one because of its importance and who the starting pitcher’s are, and the other strictly because the two hurlers have dominating potential. These two contests overshadow the rest the other six games in the senior circuit and should be entertaining for sports bettors and baseball fans alike. Get the latest key numbers for these games on the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.

Houston at Chicago

The Chicago Cubs (52-45, -1.9 units) played liked they preferred first place, as Alfonso Soriano hit a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 13th inning last night that allowed the Cubs to stay at the top of the division. Chicago has played fewer games to date than any NL Central team; however is three games clear of any competitor in the loss column.

Ryan Dempster (5-5, 4.09) comes off the DL today for Chicago, after missing just over three weeks with a fractured toe after jumping over the dugout railing to go on the field and celebrate a win over Milwaukee on July 5. Dempster has loved pitching at Wrigley Field and is 4-1 there this season. Sportsbook.com has established the Cubs as -110 money line home favorites, which suits Dempster, who is 32-12 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 during his big league career. (Team's Record)

He will go to battle against Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.66) of Houston. Earlier this season, whispers were circulating maybe Oswalt was no longer a first-rate pitcher. In his last six starts, Oswalt has proven otherwise to his critics. The right-hander has 2.00 ERA in his last six outings, with the Astros having won the last five. He and his Astros teammates are 20-5 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse.

The Cubs will be chasing a sixth straight win and are 47-24 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. This division battle begins at 8:05 Eastern on WGN.

Philadelphia at Arizona

The Phillies (57-40, +10.2 units) are thankful Arizona has a retractable roof in downtown Phoenix, since tonight’s game time temperature is expected to be around 115 degrees again. Philadelphia hopes Cole Hamels (6-5, 4.66) can regain late season form from a year ago and put some heat on the Diamondbacks. With the Phillies having won 18 of last 21 games, they will be facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball all season in Dan Haren (10-5, 2.14).

Many have speculated Hamels heavy workload from a season ago has taken a toll this season, with a number poor performances and missed starts. The lefthander has looked better lately, allowing four runs in 12 innings in his last two starts. This will be a good test for Hamels to see if he really has regained prior form, since he is 2-3, with hefty 5.81 ERA on the road. In the past, Hamels and the Phils have feasted on revolting teams like Arizona (43-57, -16.2 units), with 13-3 road record against losing teams.

The D-Backs play a whole lot better when Haren in on the mound, winning 13 of 20 games, with the strong possibility of emerging victorious five other times if they would have had any offensive production. Haren showed a human side in his last start, charged with four runs on eight hits in five innings against the Pittsburgh, as he struggled with command. That was only the second time all season Haren surrendered more than three runs, his first such outing since May 23 in Oakland.

Haren has been a shutdown starter, with 7-0 record after the opposing team scored five or more runs. (D-Backs Record) Arizona opened as a -135 money line favorite, but sports bettors quickly pounded that line and the Snakes are now -112. That doesn’t change the fact Haren and Arizona are 9-3 as -110 to -150 home favorites, with the Phillies 11-3 in road games after a win by four runs or more this season.

Haren will throw the first pitch in the desert at 9:40 Eastern and fans can watch in local markets or on MLB.TV.

StatFox Power Line –Chicago -122, Philadelphia -104