February 2012 MLB Events
Calendar of MLB Events for February 2012 brought to you by mlbbettingline.com
MLB News
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
2010-10-21
NLCS Game 4, San Francisco leads series 2-1
Wednesday, 7:55 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Betting Odds: San Francisco -108, Philadelphia -102, Total: 7.5
San Francisco looks to take a commanding three-games-to-one lead when it sends Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00) to the mound in Game 4. Philadelphia counters with Joe Blanton (9-6, 4.82 ERA).
Bumgarner picked up the win in the series-clinching Game 4 of the NLDS against Atlanta, throwing six innings and allowing two runs on six hits while striking out five. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA over his past three starts. Bumgarner struggled a bit at home this year, going 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA. By contrast, his ERA on the road during the regular season was 1.91. Wednesday marks his first career start against Philadelphia.
Blanton makes his first playoff start of the year in Game 4. The right-hander hasn’t pitched since September 29 where he went seven innings, surrendering only an unearned run and three hits in a 7-1 win over the Nationals. The Phillies have won Blanton’s past seven starts and 10 of his past 11 outings. He struggled a bit on the road this year, going 4-4 with a 5.31 ERA. Blanton hasn’t fared very well against the Giants in his career either, taking a 2-3 mark and a 4.73 ERA into Wednesday’s matchup. However, his lone 2010 start against San Francisco was encouraging. Blanton picked up the win after scattering eight hits and two runs over 6.1 innings.
According to this key baseball betting trend, those betting on the Giants appear to be on the right side:
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (125-78 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.6%, +49.3 units. Rating = 3*).
Now that you have the key numbers for tonight’s MLB Playoff games, head over to Sportsbook.com to place your bets.
MLB Handicapping Study – Divisional Dogs
2010-07-14
I had a conversation last week with a FoxSheets subscriber who claimed to have consistent success in betting baseball by following just a short list of fundamental concepts and strategies. While some of them were FoxSheets info-related in terms of systems and power ratings, etc, one of them was much more straight forward and it involved simply looking for value-laden underdogs in divisional games. Of course this piqued my curiosity, and to scratch that itch, I went back and did a study analyzing the performance of divisional dogs over the last decade.
One of the most fundamental beliefs in anyone who puts more weight in divisional games is that there is a familiarity that decreases the theoretical talent margin between two teams. They face each other so many times each season that they are well-versed in the strengths and weaknesses of each player and thus the opponent as a whole. Realistically, the oddsmaker doesn’t take this into account as much, since they are typically building their lines from a more universal set of power ratings that doesn’t recognize situational factors such as divisional play. Obviously the underlying thought is that this disconnect should lend value to anyone who believes in the power of the rivalry.
So, having theoretically been convinced that there was some merit to this divisional underdog theory, I set out to find out the actual results. I took all of the divisional games played in Major League Baseball between 2000 and this past Sunday (July 11th) and tabulated the wins, losses, and betting units won had a bettor backed every divisional dog in that time frame. The results are below.
<b>Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)</b>
<b>Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>
<b>2000: </b>224-293 (43.3%), +24.4 Units
<b>2001: </b>284-376 (43.0%), +8.2 Units
<b>2002: </b>251-417 (37.6%), -57 Units
<b>2003: </b>265-404 (39.6%), -2.5 Units
<b>2004: </b>283-403 (41.3%), +4.9 Units
<b>2005: </b>318-400 (44.3%), +43.9 Units
<b>2006: </b>301-411 (42.3%), +2.1 Units
<b>2007: </b>306-377 (44.8%), +53.4 Units
<b>2008: </b>308-406 (43.1%), +22.1 Units
<b>2009: </b>270-421 (39.1%), -39.6 Units
<b>2010: </b>134-187 (41.7%), +1.4 Units
<b>TOTAL: </b>2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units
Average Road Underdog Line: -158
Average Return on Investment = 0.9%
As you can see, the divisional road underdog has been generally successful, producing 61.3 units of profit over the last decade-plus, with a R.O.I. of about 0.9%. Now, that isn’t enough to really wow a systems handicapper, but it does suggest that the strategy of backing road divisional dogs will at least keep the average joe in the fight against the oddsmakers. One important thing to note from the season-by-season results is that in only three of the 11 seasons has the road divisional dog netted a loss. So it can be said that the results of 2002 & 2009 in particular skew the numbers of what would be an otherwise more solid theory.
<b>Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)</b>
<b>Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>
<b>2000: </b>127-112 (53.1%), +49.5 Units
<b>2001: </b>157-215 (42.2%), -22.4 Units
<b>2002: </b>156-210 (42.6%), -4.2 Units
<b>2003: </b>171-199 (46.2%), +25.6 Units
<b>2004: </b>150-187 (44.5%), +11 Units
<b>2005: </b>133-185 (41.8%), -14.9 Units
<b>2006: </b>162-187 (46.4%), +15.3 Units
<b>2007: </b>152-184 (45.2%), +0.8 Units
<b>2008: </b>147-160 (47.9%), +12.2 Units
<b>2009: </b>143-184 (43.7%), -14.4 Units
<b>2010: </b>74-77 (49.0%), +13.3 Units
<b>TOTAL: </b>1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units
Average Home Underdog Line: +129
Average Return on Investment = 2.1%
The divisional home underdog has proven over doubly effective than those on the road in terms of R.O.I., producing about 2.1% over the last 11 seasons, with a net profit of 71.8 units. Again, only four seasons netted a loss during that time span, with 2002 & 2009 again being part of the group. It is interesting to see that divisional home dogs up through the all-star break in 2010 have won 49% of their games, the highest winning percentage since 2000, with a R.O.I. of 8.8%.
<b>Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)</b>
<b>HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>
<b>-300 or higher: </b>24-66 (26.7%), +5.7 Units
<b>-250 to -299: </b>58-148 (28.2%), -9.6 Units
<b>-220 to -249: </b>143-252 (36.2%), +47.8 Units
<b>-190 to -219: </b>236-410 (36.5%), +25.7 Units
<b>-170 to -189: </b>305-501 (37.8%), +4.4 Units
<b>-150 to -169: </b>529-801 (39.8%), -25.7 Units
<b>-130 to -149: </b>786-973 (44.7%), +29.2 Units
<b>-116 to -129: </b>435-477 (47.7%), +12.5 Units
<b>-106 to -115: </b>428-467 (47.8%), -28.7 Units
<b>TOTAL: </b>2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units
As you can see, there are some distinct breaks in success rates by divisional road dogs when you consider the line range in which they are playing too. There is a so-called “sweet spot” when the home team is favored in the -190 to -249 range. In these games since 2000, the road divisional dog has only won about 36.4% of its games, but has produced 73.5 units of profit. That equates to a R.O.I. of 7.1%. Now that type of return is something that mutual fund managers would kill for nowadays. If only us bettors had dropped our 401K money into this option rather than on Wall Street!
<b>Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)</b>
<b>HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>
<b>+105 to -104: </b>440-456 (49.1%), -5.2 Units
<b>+106 to +120: </b>456-480 (48.7%), +40.8 Units
<b>+121 to +154: </b>475-585 (44.8%), +54.7 Units
<b>+155 to +199: </b>167-289 (36.6%), -6.2 Units
<b>+200 or higher: </b>34-90 (27.4%), -12.3 Units
<b>TOTAL: </b>1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units
The break in line range performance by home divisional dogs is very transparent. Those playing in the +106 to +154 range have been a solid investment over the last decade-plus, going 931-1065 for +95.5 units of profit. Compare that to the home divisional dogs in every other range that have netted -23.7 units of loss. Considering that 1,996 games have produced 4.8% R.O.I. over the 11-year span, bettors have a strategy in front of them that has produced both handsomely and consistently. At an average of 190 games per season, bettors can expect to have an opportunity to take advantage about once a night during the baseball season.
<b>Summary</b>
The results of the divisional dogs study are encouraging as it doesn’t take a whole lot of digging to come up with plays that should produce profits over the long haul, assuming of course that proper money management techniques are held to. Of course, this study was conducted using dime lines as the basis, and bettors paying higher vig than that is just cheating themselves. I would have no problem recommending the divisional dog strategy as a basis for beginning your baseball handicapping each day. When you spice in bullpen analysis, systems, and other key strength indicators, you should have all you need to build a nice bankroll each summer.
MLB: Los Angeles tries to cool down hot-lanta
2010-06-03
Over the past two weeks, the Atlanta Braves have vaulted from worst to first in the NL East. The next two weeks could determine if they have what it takes to stay there. The surging Braves look to win nine straight games for the first time in a decade when they open a season-high 11-game trip Thursday night against a Los Angeles Dodgers team seeking its fifth consecutive victory. Sportsbook.com offers Los Angeles as the -125 favorite for Thursday.
Atlanta’s chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2005 weren’t looking good as a nine-game losing streak from April 21-29 dropped the club a season-worst six games below .500. The Braves (31-22, +5.4) were still 6 1/2 games back of first-place Philadelphia on May 17, but they’ve gone a Major League-best 13-2 to open up a 2 1/2-game division lead.
Atlanta finished a three-game sweep of the defending NL champion Phillies on Wednesday with a 2-1 win. The Braves, who have outscored their opponents 51-21 during the eight-game winning streak, haven’t won nine consecutive games since reeling off a franchise-best 15 straight from April 16-May 2, 2000. They will begin this road trip sporting a 18-5 mark when playing with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less in the last game.
No team has had both a winning and losing streak of at least nine games in a single season since Cleveland in 2008, which had runs of 10 games.
It would certainly be a surprise if Atlanta can continue its winning ways over this next stretch. After this four-game series at Dodger Stadium, the Braves have four in Arizona followed by a three-game series at AL Central-leading Minnesota. Under Bobby Cox, Atlanta is only 26-32 after allowing three runs or less in five straight contests and the road excursion returns home for three against Tampa Bay, owner of baseball’s best record.
The Dodgers (31-22, +3.2) enter this series having won three straight games in their final at-bat. Garret Anderson came up with the big hit in Wednesday’s 1-0 win over Arizona, driving in Matt Kemp with a two-out single in the 14th inning. Anderson helped his team move to 11-5 in one run games this season.
Los Angeles has won four straight despite Andre Ethier’s struggles at the plate. Ethier is 1 for 14 in three games since coming off the disabled list after missing the previous 15 because of a broken right pinky finger. He hit .367 (11 for 30) with three homers, two doubles and nine RBIs in seven games against Atlanta last season, but the Dodgers lost four.
Hiroki Kuroda (5-3, 3.55 ERA, 1.358 WHIP) takes the ball for Los Angeles looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the season. After going 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA in his first five May starts, Kuroda was tagged for seven runs - five earned - and 10 hits in a season-low four innings of Saturday’s 11-3 loss at Colorado.
Kuroda is 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts against the Braves, and in his only outing against them at Dodger Stadium, the right-hander threw a one-hitter, winning 3-0 on July 7, 2008 and L.A. is 7-1 when he is the series Game 1 starter.
Atlanta counters with Kris Medlen (2-1, 2.85, 1.317), who is 1-0 with a 3.22 ERA in four starts since joining the rotation. Against Pittsburgh on Saturday, Medlen gave up three runs and nine hits in six innings of a 6-3 win. This will be the right-hander’s first career start against the Dodgers after going 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four relief outings against them last season.
Sportsbook.com has the Dodgers as -127 money line favorites with the total Ov8. Los Angeles is 12-2 after three consecutive games versus a NL West clubs this season and 14-4 UNDER after a contest where the bullpen threw six or more innings. Atlanta has won their last five against teams with a positive record; however is 2-9 as road underdog. The Braves are 13-3 OVER in away encounters after allowing four runs or less in five straight games since 2008.
The First pitch is set for 10:10 Eastern on MLB-TV and can also be viewed in local markets. The StatFox Power Line shows L.A. Dodgers -111, indicating a slight overpricing.
MLB: Colorado vs. Philadelphia Divisional Series Betting
2009-10-07
The defending World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies have ability to score runs by the bushel-full and have strong starting pitching. The Phillies topped the National League in runs scored at 5.1 per game, which was just ahead of second place Colorado at 5.0. The Phils boast playoff experience, the Rockies were one of the league’s hottest clubs in the second half of the regular season. It should be a great series, and an exciting one to bet on. Speaking of which, Sportsbook.com has all kinds of options available for you to consider. Head over to the LIVE ODDS page to see all those.
Need a game changing home run, look no further than these two clubs with Philly going yard 224 times (1st in NL) and Rocks batters sending the ball over the fence 190 times (2nd).
No team can live on hitting alone and Colorado had five different starting pitchers win 10 games or more, led by Jorge DeLa Rosa 16 wins. The Phillies have Cole Hamels who pitched much better the last two months than the first four and knows what it takes in the postseason. The addition of Cliff Lee gave the Phillies a wonderful a chance to win every fifth day and placed Joe Blanton in better position as a solid starter.
Both lineups have the ability to explode at any time, which sets up the potential for a great deal of second guessing by the managers in this series when it comes to making pitching changes. When has a starter had enough or can he work out of jams?
This leads to the late inning bullpen situations for both teams. Closer Brad Lidge was given every opportunity to succeed by manager Charley Manuel and he failed. Ryan Madison is now the closer, but his mental makeup is unproven in this pressure packed role. Huston Street has only allowed runs once in his last 10 appearances, yet nobody is convinced he’s Mariano Rivera material.
Offensive – National League
Runs scored Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Home Runs Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Slugging Pct. Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Walks Colorado 1st Philadelphia 7th
On base Pct. Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 8th
Pitching & Defense
ERA Colorado 7th Philadelphia 5th
Bullpen ERA Colorado 13th Philadelphia 9th
Strikeouts Colorado 8th Philadelphia 9th
Walks Colorado 4th Philadelphia 2nd
On base Pct. Colorado 6th Philadelphia 7th
Putouts Colorado 12th Philadelphia 4th
Errors Colorado 5th Philadelphia 2nd
Key Numbers- Philadelphia won four of six meetings this year and tied for the best record in baseball on the road at 48-33. Colorado’s mission is to earn split and return home where they had the second best record in the senior circuit on home turf with 51-30 record. The Rockies are only 6-18 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, while the Phillies are 17-7 when facing the same kind of offense.
Sportsbook.com Series Odds: Phillies -170, Rockies +145
MLB: Pitching Matchups have bettors thinking
2009-07-28
In the National League, two games standout Tuesday, one because of its importance and who the starting pitcher’s are, and the other strictly because the two hurlers have dominating potential. These two contests overshadow the rest the other six games in the senior circuit and should be entertaining for sports bettors and baseball fans alike. Get the latest key numbers for these games on the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.
Houston at Chicago
The Chicago Cubs (52-45, -1.9 units) played liked they preferred first place, as Alfonso Soriano hit a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 13th inning last night that allowed the Cubs to stay at the top of the division. Chicago has played fewer games to date than any NL Central team; however is three games clear of any competitor in the loss column.
Ryan Dempster (5-5, 4.09) comes off the DL today for Chicago, after missing just over three weeks with a fractured toe after jumping over the dugout railing to go on the field and celebrate a win over Milwaukee on July 5. Dempster has loved pitching at Wrigley Field and is 4-1 there this season. Sportsbook.com has established the Cubs as -110 money line home favorites, which suits Dempster, who is 32-12 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 during his big league career. (Team's Record)
He will go to battle against Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.66) of Houston. Earlier this season, whispers were circulating maybe Oswalt was no longer a first-rate pitcher. In his last six starts, Oswalt has proven otherwise to his critics. The right-hander has 2.00 ERA in his last six outings, with the Astros having won the last five. He and his Astros teammates are 20-5 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse.
The Cubs will be chasing a sixth straight win and are 47-24 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. This division battle begins at 8:05 Eastern on WGN.
Philadelphia at Arizona
The Phillies (57-40, +10.2 units) are thankful Arizona has a retractable roof in downtown Phoenix, since tonight’s game time temperature is expected to be around 115 degrees again. Philadelphia hopes Cole Hamels (6-5, 4.66) can regain late season form from a year ago and put some heat on the Diamondbacks. With the Phillies having won 18 of last 21 games, they will be facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball all season in Dan Haren (10-5, 2.14).
Many have speculated Hamels heavy workload from a season ago has taken a toll this season, with a number poor performances and missed starts. The lefthander has looked better lately, allowing four runs in 12 innings in his last two starts. This will be a good test for Hamels to see if he really has regained prior form, since he is 2-3, with hefty 5.81 ERA on the road. In the past, Hamels and the Phils have feasted on revolting teams like Arizona (43-57, -16.2 units), with 13-3 road record against losing teams.
The D-Backs play a whole lot better when Haren in on the mound, winning 13 of 20 games, with the strong possibility of emerging victorious five other times if they would have had any offensive production. Haren showed a human side in his last start, charged with four runs on eight hits in five innings against the Pittsburgh, as he struggled with command. That was only the second time all season Haren surrendered more than three runs, his first such outing since May 23 in Oakland.
Haren has been a shutdown starter, with 7-0 record after the opposing team scored five or more runs. (D-Backs Record) Arizona opened as a -135 money line favorite, but sports bettors quickly pounded that line and the Snakes are now -112. That doesn’t change the fact Haren and Arizona are 9-3 as -110 to -150 home favorites, with the Phillies 11-3 in road games after a win by four runs or more this season.
Haren will throw the first pitch in the desert at 9:40 Eastern and fans can watch in local markets or on MLB.TV.
StatFox Power Line –Chicago -122, Philadelphia -104
National League contenders in action
2009-06-02
Five teams in the senior circuit stand above all the rest and each will be in action to start the month of June. Though the season is not quite a third of the way completed, each of the five squads have shown the capabilities to have more pitching, hitting and fielding compared to other division competitors. With many unforeseen circumstances still available to be played out, we’ll focus just on today’s contests. Be in the action checking the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for baseball on Monday.
Philadelphia at San Diego
The Phillies are in first place in the NL East and are the best road team in Major League’s at 16-6 (+11.8 units). They average 6.4 runs per game away from home with their loaded lineup; however, they will be severely tested as they embark on a West Coast swing, starting in San Diego. The Padres as it turns out are one of the best home teams in baseball with 17-6 mark (+10.3). San Diego hasn’t overwhelmed teams with electric offense, which averages just 3.7 RPG; instead they have relied on timely hitting and tremendous pitching, with teams scoring a mere 3.2 RPG at Petco Park. Philly will start Joe Blanton (3-3, 6.14 ERA) and they have won 12 of 16 at Petco and are -121 money line road favorites with total Un8 according to Sportsbook.com. The Padres will counter with Kevin Correia (1-3, 5.11) and they are 10-2 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.
New York Mets at Pittsburgh
The Mets have won three straight series and will go after another, traveling to Pittsburgh for four-game series. New York is a half a game behind the Phillies in division race and opened as -112 favorites behind Livan Hernandez (4-1, 4.28) and have 8-21 record on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last two seasons. Pittsburgh has been slumping, losing seven of last 10 and may soon have to make a decision on Ian Snell (1-6, 5.43), who continues to struggle. The Pirates offense doesn’t help matters, having scored one run or less in 15 of 50 games played in 2009. The Mets have taken five of last seven at PNC Park.
Milwaukee at Florida
Milwaukee holds a thin one game lead in the NL Central, thanks to sweeping Cincinnati at home over the weekend. The Brewers will head south, starting in Florida, taking on the Marlins. This matchup would appear to favor the Brew Crew, who is 13-3 having won three of their last four games this season. They will start Jeff Suppan (3-4, 5.23) as a +102 underdog and the two combined and the 11-4 as road underdogs of less than +150. Florida is just 4-11 at home against right-hand starters and hopes Andrew Miller (1-2, 4.55) is on top of his game. If not, the Marlins are 18-35 at home vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75 or more percent of their save opportunities over the last three seasons.
Cincinnati at St. Louis
The Cardinals are back home after splitting six-game road trip and might be feeling lively hosting Cincinnati. The Reds were swept in Milwaukee over the weekend and they’ve lost 12 of their last 14 at Busch Stadium, including their last five in 2008. St. Louis on the other hand is 17-9 (+5 units) at home. They will start Todd Wellemeyer (5-4, 5.02), who has won his last two starts in allowing just two runs in 11 1/3 innings. The Reds will counter with Edinson Volquez (4-2, 4.25), who will be activated from the 15-day disabled list to make his ninth start of the year. The terrific right-hander suffered back spasms, after making a series of solid starts. The Redbirds might be -121 money line favorites; however Volquez and Cincy are is 11-3 as visitors when the money line is +125 to -125.
Arizona at L.A. Dodgers
The Dodgers return home where they are 18-5 (+10.7 units), scoring 5.8 RPG. Los Angeles has the best record in baseball at 35-17 and takes on an Arizona squad who was supposed to be a contender. The D-Backs (22-29) started poorly and even the change in managers has not produced much in the way of results, after another dismal homestand. The Snakes hitters have desolate.214 batting average on the road, though are working on six-game streak of 10 or more hits, all at home. Hiroki Kuroda (1-0, 1.59 ERA) comes off the DL after spending almost two months on it, after experiencing shoulder tightness. The Dodgers are -180 money line favorites and are 18-4 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. They will face the offerings of Billy Buckner (1-1, 7.16), who has taken Brandon Webb’s spot in the rotation.
Wagering on Hot MLB Team Trends
2008-07-24
Baseball is a game of streaks, being played out over a schedule of 162 games, and bettors are often at the mercy of these fads. There are currently several teams streaking in various directions. Be sure to take stock of these patterns before unloading your next wager on Thursdays board.
A major league team can have runs of eight games playing over the total, facing the fifth starter from the opposing team, and be shut down offensively like a garage door. Other times, little moments occur that set off wild sparks. The Los Angeles Dodgers held the lead for a total of two innings of the 29 they played against Arizona over the past weekend and it was enough to take two of three against the D-Backs. The euphoria carried over in scoring 19 runs the next game at Colorado, followed by; you guessed it, one run in game two of the series. Here is a look at current streaks from various MLB clubs.
The Detroit Tigers were supposed to have the most prolific lineup in all of major league baseball this season. Maybe it was the pressure of expectations, or having to keep scoring runs with pitchers allowing runs faster than the price of a barrel of gas was going up in the spring. Whatever the reason, the Tigers were lamer than Madonna’s latest CD. With the advent of increasingly warmer weather and a return to health of all key components in the batting order, Detroit is starting to mash. Since July 8, these smashing Tigers are averaging seven runs per game, sending fear into opposing starters. Over this run, oddsmakers have been attempting to adjust on the run, with Tigers roaring, playing 8-5 OVER the number. In reviewing their games, the biggest reason they have any contests fall below total is Jim Leyland’s bunch receives decent starting pitching every so often.
The Milwaukee Brewers are another squad that has been hot with lumber. Manager Ned Yost has been waiting all season for consistency with offense and has moved up to tied for sixth in the National League in runs scored with latest surge. With Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia at the top of the rotation, Milwaukee has closed on the Cubs and is 8-4 OVER in last 12 outings.
The Atlanta Braves must feel like they are living in a torn tepee on the road, with 17-33 record, losing -18.2 units. The biggest culprit for this lack of success has been a spotty offense in the traveling grays. Atlanta hitters average a mere 3.8 runs per game on the road. While this isn’t breathtaking news based on the season, the Braves are 8-4 UNDER in last 12 road games, keeping season long play intact. Here’s an eye-popper, the Bravos are 0-13 in 2008 in one run games on the road and are on streak of 0-19 in this circumstance dating back to August 10, last season. In fact, they are 1-23 in last 24 road ballgames decided by a single run. That’s a worse payout than a slot machine on Vegas Strip.
The New York Yankees have been written off more times than a John McCain opt-ed piece sent to major newspapers. With the passing of the All-Star game and a hint of August pennant chase in the air, the Yankees are right back in the hunt, thanks to 11-game winning streak at home. The Bronx Bombers are hitting the horsehide with greater regularity; however it has been the pitching staff which has carried this club. In the 11 wins, Yanks pitchers have given a sick 18 runs, fueling this tear. Little surprise New York is 7-3-1 UNDER in these encounters.
The lowest scoring team in the American League is the Seattle Mariners at 3.9 runs per game and they are persistent in the mode they have set. Seattle scores 3.8 RPG at Safeco Field, 3.8 versus RH starters and 3.6 in day games. Where the Mariners just go overboard is on the road, were average catapults to 4.1 RPG. Since July 5, even the M’s are out-doing themselves. Seattle is a sorry mess at 3-11 and has scored a not so grand total of 24 runs in the losses. Not hard to comprehend, they would be 11-2-1 UNDER in this stretch.
2010-10-21
NLCS Game 4, San Francisco leads series 2-1
Wednesday, 7:55 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Betting Odds: San Francisco -108, Philadelphia -102, Total: 7.5
San Francisco looks to take a commanding three-games-to-one lead when it sends Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00) to the mound in Game 4. Philadelphia counters with Joe Blanton (9-6, 4.82 ERA).
Bumgarner picked up the win in the series-clinching Game 4 of the NLDS against Atlanta, throwing six innings and allowing two runs on six hits while striking out five. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA over his past three starts. Bumgarner struggled a bit at home this year, going 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA. By contrast, his ERA on the road during the regular season was 1.91. Wednesday marks his first career start against Philadelphia.
Blanton makes his first playoff start of the year in Game 4. The right-hander hasn’t pitched since September 29 where he went seven innings, surrendering only an unearned run and three hits in a 7-1 win over the Nationals. The Phillies have won Blanton’s past seven starts and 10 of his past 11 outings. He struggled a bit on the road this year, going 4-4 with a 5.31 ERA. Blanton hasn’t fared very well against the Giants in his career either, taking a 2-3 mark and a 4.73 ERA into Wednesday’s matchup. However, his lone 2010 start against San Francisco was encouraging. Blanton picked up the win after scattering eight hits and two runs over 6.1 innings.
According to this key baseball betting trend, those betting on the Giants appear to be on the right side:
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (125-78 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.6%, +49.3 units. Rating = 3*).
Now that you have the key numbers for tonight’s MLB Playoff games, head over to Sportsbook.com to place your bets.
MLB Handicapping Study – Divisional Dogs
2010-07-14
I had a conversation last week with a FoxSheets subscriber who claimed to have consistent success in betting baseball by following just a short list of fundamental concepts and strategies. While some of them were FoxSheets info-related in terms of systems and power ratings, etc, one of them was much more straight forward and it involved simply looking for value-laden underdogs in divisional games. Of course this piqued my curiosity, and to scratch that itch, I went back and did a study analyzing the performance of divisional dogs over the last decade.
One of the most fundamental beliefs in anyone who puts more weight in divisional games is that there is a familiarity that decreases the theoretical talent margin between two teams. They face each other so many times each season that they are well-versed in the strengths and weaknesses of each player and thus the opponent as a whole. Realistically, the oddsmaker doesn’t take this into account as much, since they are typically building their lines from a more universal set of power ratings that doesn’t recognize situational factors such as divisional play. Obviously the underlying thought is that this disconnect should lend value to anyone who believes in the power of the rivalry.
So, having theoretically been convinced that there was some merit to this divisional underdog theory, I set out to find out the actual results. I took all of the divisional games played in Major League Baseball between 2000 and this past Sunday (July 11th) and tabulated the wins, losses, and betting units won had a bettor backed every divisional dog in that time frame. The results are below.
<b>Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)</b>
<b>Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>
<b>2000: </b>224-293 (43.3%), +24.4 Units
<b>2001: </b>284-376 (43.0%), +8.2 Units
<b>2002: </b>251-417 (37.6%), -57 Units
<b>2003: </b>265-404 (39.6%), -2.5 Units
<b>2004: </b>283-403 (41.3%), +4.9 Units
<b>2005: </b>318-400 (44.3%), +43.9 Units
<b>2006: </b>301-411 (42.3%), +2.1 Units
<b>2007: </b>306-377 (44.8%), +53.4 Units
<b>2008: </b>308-406 (43.1%), +22.1 Units
<b>2009: </b>270-421 (39.1%), -39.6 Units
<b>2010: </b>134-187 (41.7%), +1.4 Units
<b>TOTAL: </b>2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units
Average Road Underdog Line: -158
Average Return on Investment = 0.9%
As you can see, the divisional road underdog has been generally successful, producing 61.3 units of profit over the last decade-plus, with a R.O.I. of about 0.9%. Now, that isn’t enough to really wow a systems handicapper, but it does suggest that the strategy of backing road divisional dogs will at least keep the average joe in the fight against the oddsmakers. One important thing to note from the season-by-season results is that in only three of the 11 seasons has the road divisional dog netted a loss. So it can be said that the results of 2002 & 2009 in particular skew the numbers of what would be an otherwise more solid theory.
<b>Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)</b>
<b>Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>
<b>2000: </b>127-112 (53.1%), +49.5 Units
<b>2001: </b>157-215 (42.2%), -22.4 Units
<b>2002: </b>156-210 (42.6%), -4.2 Units
<b>2003: </b>171-199 (46.2%), +25.6 Units
<b>2004: </b>150-187 (44.5%), +11 Units
<b>2005: </b>133-185 (41.8%), -14.9 Units
<b>2006: </b>162-187 (46.4%), +15.3 Units
<b>2007: </b>152-184 (45.2%), +0.8 Units
<b>2008: </b>147-160 (47.9%), +12.2 Units
<b>2009: </b>143-184 (43.7%), -14.4 Units
<b>2010: </b>74-77 (49.0%), +13.3 Units
<b>TOTAL: </b>1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units
Average Home Underdog Line: +129
Average Return on Investment = 2.1%
The divisional home underdog has proven over doubly effective than those on the road in terms of R.O.I., producing about 2.1% over the last 11 seasons, with a net profit of 71.8 units. Again, only four seasons netted a loss during that time span, with 2002 & 2009 again being part of the group. It is interesting to see that divisional home dogs up through the all-star break in 2010 have won 49% of their games, the highest winning percentage since 2000, with a R.O.I. of 8.8%.
<b>Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)</b>
<b>HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>
<b>-300 or higher: </b>24-66 (26.7%), +5.7 Units
<b>-250 to -299: </b>58-148 (28.2%), -9.6 Units
<b>-220 to -249: </b>143-252 (36.2%), +47.8 Units
<b>-190 to -219: </b>236-410 (36.5%), +25.7 Units
<b>-170 to -189: </b>305-501 (37.8%), +4.4 Units
<b>-150 to -169: </b>529-801 (39.8%), -25.7 Units
<b>-130 to -149: </b>786-973 (44.7%), +29.2 Units
<b>-116 to -129: </b>435-477 (47.7%), +12.5 Units
<b>-106 to -115: </b>428-467 (47.8%), -28.7 Units
<b>TOTAL: </b>2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units
As you can see, there are some distinct breaks in success rates by divisional road dogs when you consider the line range in which they are playing too. There is a so-called “sweet spot” when the home team is favored in the -190 to -249 range. In these games since 2000, the road divisional dog has only won about 36.4% of its games, but has produced 73.5 units of profit. That equates to a R.O.I. of 7.1%. Now that type of return is something that mutual fund managers would kill for nowadays. If only us bettors had dropped our 401K money into this option rather than on Wall Street!
<b>Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)</b>
<b>HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS</b>
<b>+105 to -104: </b>440-456 (49.1%), -5.2 Units
<b>+106 to +120: </b>456-480 (48.7%), +40.8 Units
<b>+121 to +154: </b>475-585 (44.8%), +54.7 Units
<b>+155 to +199: </b>167-289 (36.6%), -6.2 Units
<b>+200 or higher: </b>34-90 (27.4%), -12.3 Units
<b>TOTAL: </b>1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units
The break in line range performance by home divisional dogs is very transparent. Those playing in the +106 to +154 range have been a solid investment over the last decade-plus, going 931-1065 for +95.5 units of profit. Compare that to the home divisional dogs in every other range that have netted -23.7 units of loss. Considering that 1,996 games have produced 4.8% R.O.I. over the 11-year span, bettors have a strategy in front of them that has produced both handsomely and consistently. At an average of 190 games per season, bettors can expect to have an opportunity to take advantage about once a night during the baseball season.
<b>Summary</b>
The results of the divisional dogs study are encouraging as it doesn’t take a whole lot of digging to come up with plays that should produce profits over the long haul, assuming of course that proper money management techniques are held to. Of course, this study was conducted using dime lines as the basis, and bettors paying higher vig than that is just cheating themselves. I would have no problem recommending the divisional dog strategy as a basis for beginning your baseball handicapping each day. When you spice in bullpen analysis, systems, and other key strength indicators, you should have all you need to build a nice bankroll each summer.
MLB: Los Angeles tries to cool down hot-lanta
2010-06-03
Over the past two weeks, the Atlanta Braves have vaulted from worst to first in the NL East. The next two weeks could determine if they have what it takes to stay there. The surging Braves look to win nine straight games for the first time in a decade when they open a season-high 11-game trip Thursday night against a Los Angeles Dodgers team seeking its fifth consecutive victory. Sportsbook.com offers Los Angeles as the -125 favorite for Thursday.
Atlanta’s chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2005 weren’t looking good as a nine-game losing streak from April 21-29 dropped the club a season-worst six games below .500. The Braves (31-22, +5.4) were still 6 1/2 games back of first-place Philadelphia on May 17, but they’ve gone a Major League-best 13-2 to open up a 2 1/2-game division lead.
Atlanta finished a three-game sweep of the defending NL champion Phillies on Wednesday with a 2-1 win. The Braves, who have outscored their opponents 51-21 during the eight-game winning streak, haven’t won nine consecutive games since reeling off a franchise-best 15 straight from April 16-May 2, 2000. They will begin this road trip sporting a 18-5 mark when playing with a rested bullpen that pitched one inning or less in the last game.
No team has had both a winning and losing streak of at least nine games in a single season since Cleveland in 2008, which had runs of 10 games.
It would certainly be a surprise if Atlanta can continue its winning ways over this next stretch. After this four-game series at Dodger Stadium, the Braves have four in Arizona followed by a three-game series at AL Central-leading Minnesota. Under Bobby Cox, Atlanta is only 26-32 after allowing three runs or less in five straight contests and the road excursion returns home for three against Tampa Bay, owner of baseball’s best record.
The Dodgers (31-22, +3.2) enter this series having won three straight games in their final at-bat. Garret Anderson came up with the big hit in Wednesday’s 1-0 win over Arizona, driving in Matt Kemp with a two-out single in the 14th inning. Anderson helped his team move to 11-5 in one run games this season.
Los Angeles has won four straight despite Andre Ethier’s struggles at the plate. Ethier is 1 for 14 in three games since coming off the disabled list after missing the previous 15 because of a broken right pinky finger. He hit .367 (11 for 30) with three homers, two doubles and nine RBIs in seven games against Atlanta last season, but the Dodgers lost four.
Hiroki Kuroda (5-3, 3.55 ERA, 1.358 WHIP) takes the ball for Los Angeles looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the season. After going 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA in his first five May starts, Kuroda was tagged for seven runs - five earned - and 10 hits in a season-low four innings of Saturday’s 11-3 loss at Colorado.
Kuroda is 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA in two starts against the Braves, and in his only outing against them at Dodger Stadium, the right-hander threw a one-hitter, winning 3-0 on July 7, 2008 and L.A. is 7-1 when he is the series Game 1 starter.
Atlanta counters with Kris Medlen (2-1, 2.85, 1.317), who is 1-0 with a 3.22 ERA in four starts since joining the rotation. Against Pittsburgh on Saturday, Medlen gave up three runs and nine hits in six innings of a 6-3 win. This will be the right-hander’s first career start against the Dodgers after going 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four relief outings against them last season.
Sportsbook.com has the Dodgers as -127 money line favorites with the total Ov8. Los Angeles is 12-2 after three consecutive games versus a NL West clubs this season and 14-4 UNDER after a contest where the bullpen threw six or more innings. Atlanta has won their last five against teams with a positive record; however is 2-9 as road underdog. The Braves are 13-3 OVER in away encounters after allowing four runs or less in five straight games since 2008.
The First pitch is set for 10:10 Eastern on MLB-TV and can also be viewed in local markets. The StatFox Power Line shows L.A. Dodgers -111, indicating a slight overpricing.
MLB: Colorado vs. Philadelphia Divisional Series Betting
2009-10-07
The defending World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies have ability to score runs by the bushel-full and have strong starting pitching. The Phillies topped the National League in runs scored at 5.1 per game, which was just ahead of second place Colorado at 5.0. The Phils boast playoff experience, the Rockies were one of the league’s hottest clubs in the second half of the regular season. It should be a great series, and an exciting one to bet on. Speaking of which, Sportsbook.com has all kinds of options available for you to consider. Head over to the LIVE ODDS page to see all those.
Need a game changing home run, look no further than these two clubs with Philly going yard 224 times (1st in NL) and Rocks batters sending the ball over the fence 190 times (2nd).
No team can live on hitting alone and Colorado had five different starting pitchers win 10 games or more, led by Jorge DeLa Rosa 16 wins. The Phillies have Cole Hamels who pitched much better the last two months than the first four and knows what it takes in the postseason. The addition of Cliff Lee gave the Phillies a wonderful a chance to win every fifth day and placed Joe Blanton in better position as a solid starter.
Both lineups have the ability to explode at any time, which sets up the potential for a great deal of second guessing by the managers in this series when it comes to making pitching changes. When has a starter had enough or can he work out of jams?
This leads to the late inning bullpen situations for both teams. Closer Brad Lidge was given every opportunity to succeed by manager Charley Manuel and he failed. Ryan Madison is now the closer, but his mental makeup is unproven in this pressure packed role. Huston Street has only allowed runs once in his last 10 appearances, yet nobody is convinced he’s Mariano Rivera material.
Offensive – National League
Runs scored Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Home Runs Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Slugging Pct. Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 1st
Walks Colorado 1st Philadelphia 7th
On base Pct. Colorado 2nd Philadelphia 8th
Pitching & Defense
ERA Colorado 7th Philadelphia 5th
Bullpen ERA Colorado 13th Philadelphia 9th
Strikeouts Colorado 8th Philadelphia 9th
Walks Colorado 4th Philadelphia 2nd
On base Pct. Colorado 6th Philadelphia 7th
Putouts Colorado 12th Philadelphia 4th
Errors Colorado 5th Philadelphia 2nd
Key Numbers- Philadelphia won four of six meetings this year and tied for the best record in baseball on the road at 48-33. Colorado’s mission is to earn split and return home where they had the second best record in the senior circuit on home turf with 51-30 record. The Rockies are only 6-18 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season, while the Phillies are 17-7 when facing the same kind of offense.
Sportsbook.com Series Odds: Phillies -170, Rockies +145
MLB: Pitching Matchups have bettors thinking
2009-07-28
In the National League, two games standout Tuesday, one because of its importance and who the starting pitcher’s are, and the other strictly because the two hurlers have dominating potential. These two contests overshadow the rest the other six games in the senior circuit and should be entertaining for sports bettors and baseball fans alike. Get the latest key numbers for these games on the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages.
Houston at Chicago
The Chicago Cubs (52-45, -1.9 units) played liked they preferred first place, as Alfonso Soriano hit a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 13th inning last night that allowed the Cubs to stay at the top of the division. Chicago has played fewer games to date than any NL Central team; however is three games clear of any competitor in the loss column.
Ryan Dempster (5-5, 4.09) comes off the DL today for Chicago, after missing just over three weeks with a fractured toe after jumping over the dugout railing to go on the field and celebrate a win over Milwaukee on July 5. Dempster has loved pitching at Wrigley Field and is 4-1 there this season. Sportsbook.com has established the Cubs as -110 money line home favorites, which suits Dempster, who is 32-12 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 during his big league career. (Team's Record)
He will go to battle against Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.66) of Houston. Earlier this season, whispers were circulating maybe Oswalt was no longer a first-rate pitcher. In his last six starts, Oswalt has proven otherwise to his critics. The right-hander has 2.00 ERA in his last six outings, with the Astros having won the last five. He and his Astros teammates are 20-5 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse.
The Cubs will be chasing a sixth straight win and are 47-24 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. This division battle begins at 8:05 Eastern on WGN.
Philadelphia at Arizona
The Phillies (57-40, +10.2 units) are thankful Arizona has a retractable roof in downtown Phoenix, since tonight’s game time temperature is expected to be around 115 degrees again. Philadelphia hopes Cole Hamels (6-5, 4.66) can regain late season form from a year ago and put some heat on the Diamondbacks. With the Phillies having won 18 of last 21 games, they will be facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball all season in Dan Haren (10-5, 2.14).
Many have speculated Hamels heavy workload from a season ago has taken a toll this season, with a number poor performances and missed starts. The lefthander has looked better lately, allowing four runs in 12 innings in his last two starts. This will be a good test for Hamels to see if he really has regained prior form, since he is 2-3, with hefty 5.81 ERA on the road. In the past, Hamels and the Phils have feasted on revolting teams like Arizona (43-57, -16.2 units), with 13-3 road record against losing teams.
The D-Backs play a whole lot better when Haren in on the mound, winning 13 of 20 games, with the strong possibility of emerging victorious five other times if they would have had any offensive production. Haren showed a human side in his last start, charged with four runs on eight hits in five innings against the Pittsburgh, as he struggled with command. That was only the second time all season Haren surrendered more than three runs, his first such outing since May 23 in Oakland.
Haren has been a shutdown starter, with 7-0 record after the opposing team scored five or more runs. (D-Backs Record) Arizona opened as a -135 money line favorite, but sports bettors quickly pounded that line and the Snakes are now -112. That doesn’t change the fact Haren and Arizona are 9-3 as -110 to -150 home favorites, with the Phillies 11-3 in road games after a win by four runs or more this season.
Haren will throw the first pitch in the desert at 9:40 Eastern and fans can watch in local markets or on MLB.TV.
StatFox Power Line –Chicago -122, Philadelphia -104
National League contenders in action
2009-06-02
Five teams in the senior circuit stand above all the rest and each will be in action to start the month of June. Though the season is not quite a third of the way completed, each of the five squads have shown the capabilities to have more pitching, hitting and fielding compared to other division competitors. With many unforeseen circumstances still available to be played out, we’ll focus just on today’s contests. Be in the action checking the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages for baseball on Monday.
Philadelphia at San Diego
The Phillies are in first place in the NL East and are the best road team in Major League’s at 16-6 (+11.8 units). They average 6.4 runs per game away from home with their loaded lineup; however, they will be severely tested as they embark on a West Coast swing, starting in San Diego. The Padres as it turns out are one of the best home teams in baseball with 17-6 mark (+10.3). San Diego hasn’t overwhelmed teams with electric offense, which averages just 3.7 RPG; instead they have relied on timely hitting and tremendous pitching, with teams scoring a mere 3.2 RPG at Petco Park. Philly will start Joe Blanton (3-3, 6.14 ERA) and they have won 12 of 16 at Petco and are -121 money line road favorites with total Un8 according to Sportsbook.com. The Padres will counter with Kevin Correia (1-3, 5.11) and they are 10-2 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.
New York Mets at Pittsburgh
The Mets have won three straight series and will go after another, traveling to Pittsburgh for four-game series. New York is a half a game behind the Phillies in division race and opened as -112 favorites behind Livan Hernandez (4-1, 4.28) and have 8-21 record on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last two seasons. Pittsburgh has been slumping, losing seven of last 10 and may soon have to make a decision on Ian Snell (1-6, 5.43), who continues to struggle. The Pirates offense doesn’t help matters, having scored one run or less in 15 of 50 games played in 2009. The Mets have taken five of last seven at PNC Park.
Milwaukee at Florida
Milwaukee holds a thin one game lead in the NL Central, thanks to sweeping Cincinnati at home over the weekend. The Brewers will head south, starting in Florida, taking on the Marlins. This matchup would appear to favor the Brew Crew, who is 13-3 having won three of their last four games this season. They will start Jeff Suppan (3-4, 5.23) as a +102 underdog and the two combined and the 11-4 as road underdogs of less than +150. Florida is just 4-11 at home against right-hand starters and hopes Andrew Miller (1-2, 4.55) is on top of his game. If not, the Marlins are 18-35 at home vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75 or more percent of their save opportunities over the last three seasons.
Cincinnati at St. Louis
The Cardinals are back home after splitting six-game road trip and might be feeling lively hosting Cincinnati. The Reds were swept in Milwaukee over the weekend and they’ve lost 12 of their last 14 at Busch Stadium, including their last five in 2008. St. Louis on the other hand is 17-9 (+5 units) at home. They will start Todd Wellemeyer (5-4, 5.02), who has won his last two starts in allowing just two runs in 11 1/3 innings. The Reds will counter with Edinson Volquez (4-2, 4.25), who will be activated from the 15-day disabled list to make his ninth start of the year. The terrific right-hander suffered back spasms, after making a series of solid starts. The Redbirds might be -121 money line favorites; however Volquez and Cincy are is 11-3 as visitors when the money line is +125 to -125.
Arizona at L.A. Dodgers
The Dodgers return home where they are 18-5 (+10.7 units), scoring 5.8 RPG. Los Angeles has the best record in baseball at 35-17 and takes on an Arizona squad who was supposed to be a contender. The D-Backs (22-29) started poorly and even the change in managers has not produced much in the way of results, after another dismal homestand. The Snakes hitters have desolate.214 batting average on the road, though are working on six-game streak of 10 or more hits, all at home. Hiroki Kuroda (1-0, 1.59 ERA) comes off the DL after spending almost two months on it, after experiencing shoulder tightness. The Dodgers are -180 money line favorites and are 18-4 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. They will face the offerings of Billy Buckner (1-1, 7.16), who has taken Brandon Webb’s spot in the rotation.
Wagering on Hot MLB Team Trends
2008-07-24
Baseball is a game of streaks, being played out over a schedule of 162 games, and bettors are often at the mercy of these fads. There are currently several teams streaking in various directions. Be sure to take stock of these patterns before unloading your next wager on Thursdays board.
A major league team can have runs of eight games playing over the total, facing the fifth starter from the opposing team, and be shut down offensively like a garage door. Other times, little moments occur that set off wild sparks. The Los Angeles Dodgers held the lead for a total of two innings of the 29 they played against Arizona over the past weekend and it was enough to take two of three against the D-Backs. The euphoria carried over in scoring 19 runs the next game at Colorado, followed by; you guessed it, one run in game two of the series. Here is a look at current streaks from various MLB clubs.
The Detroit Tigers were supposed to have the most prolific lineup in all of major league baseball this season. Maybe it was the pressure of expectations, or having to keep scoring runs with pitchers allowing runs faster than the price of a barrel of gas was going up in the spring. Whatever the reason, the Tigers were lamer than Madonna’s latest CD. With the advent of increasingly warmer weather and a return to health of all key components in the batting order, Detroit is starting to mash. Since July 8, these smashing Tigers are averaging seven runs per game, sending fear into opposing starters. Over this run, oddsmakers have been attempting to adjust on the run, with Tigers roaring, playing 8-5 OVER the number. In reviewing their games, the biggest reason they have any contests fall below total is Jim Leyland’s bunch receives decent starting pitching every so often.
The Milwaukee Brewers are another squad that has been hot with lumber. Manager Ned Yost has been waiting all season for consistency with offense and has moved up to tied for sixth in the National League in runs scored with latest surge. With Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia at the top of the rotation, Milwaukee has closed on the Cubs and is 8-4 OVER in last 12 outings.
The Atlanta Braves must feel like they are living in a torn tepee on the road, with 17-33 record, losing -18.2 units. The biggest culprit for this lack of success has been a spotty offense in the traveling grays. Atlanta hitters average a mere 3.8 runs per game on the road. While this isn’t breathtaking news based on the season, the Braves are 8-4 UNDER in last 12 road games, keeping season long play intact. Here’s an eye-popper, the Bravos are 0-13 in 2008 in one run games on the road and are on streak of 0-19 in this circumstance dating back to August 10, last season. In fact, they are 1-23 in last 24 road ballgames decided by a single run. That’s a worse payout than a slot machine on Vegas Strip.
The New York Yankees have been written off more times than a John McCain opt-ed piece sent to major newspapers. With the passing of the All-Star game and a hint of August pennant chase in the air, the Yankees are right back in the hunt, thanks to 11-game winning streak at home. The Bronx Bombers are hitting the horsehide with greater regularity; however it has been the pitching staff which has carried this club. In the 11 wins, Yanks pitchers have given a sick 18 runs, fueling this tear. Little surprise New York is 7-3-1 UNDER in these encounters.
The lowest scoring team in the American League is the Seattle Mariners at 3.9 runs per game and they are persistent in the mode they have set. Seattle scores 3.8 RPG at Safeco Field, 3.8 versus RH starters and 3.6 in day games. Where the Mariners just go overboard is on the road, were average catapults to 4.1 RPG. Since July 5, even the M’s are out-doing themselves. Seattle is a sorry mess at 3-11 and has scored a not so grand total of 24 runs in the losses. Not hard to comprehend, they would be 11-2-1 UNDER in this stretch.